Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Our world is governed by highly improbable, catastrophic outlier events that completely upend reality, yet we constantly trick ourselves into believing we could have predicted them all along.
The world operates in the domain of Extremistan, where a single outlier event can disproportionately impact the total, rendering standard bell-curve statistics dangerously obsolete.
Humans suffer from the narrative fallacy, constantly weaving logical stories out of random events to create a false sense of predictability and understanding.
To survive extreme uncertainty, you must adopt a barbell strategy by placing the vast majority of your resources in hyper-safe assets while taking small, speculative risks that expose you to positive outliers.