Annie Duke
Stop judging your decisions by how they turn out. Life is a game of poker, not chess, meaning luck and hidden information dictate outcomes just as much as your skill does.
Treating life like chess creates the illusion that good outcomes always come from perfect choices, whereas life actually resembles poker where luck and hidden information heavily influence results.
We must actively avoid resulting, which is the cognitive trap of judging the quality of our initial choices based solely on how things ultimately turned out.
Framing every choice as a literal wager forces us to objectively vet our haphazardly formed beliefs and assign realistic probabilities to what we think we know.