Annie Duke
Society glorifies relentless grit, but persisting in losing endeavors can destroy value. Quitting before failure is certain can feel premature, even when walking away would preserve resources.
Quitting on time will inevitably feel like quitting too early because the optimal moment to exit occurs before failure becomes an absolute certainty.
Evaluating choices through expected value reveals that abandoning a low-yield path accelerates your progress by freeing up capital, time, and attention for better opportunities.
You must tackle the hardest and most uncertain part of a project first rather than building the easy components that create a dangerous illusion of progress.