Tom Chivers
Your brain naturally predicts the future by constantly updating its beliefs with new evidence. Embracing this mathematical process can completely transform how you make decisions and view the world.
Probability is not just about frequencies but represents a measure of your uncertainty regarding specific hypotheses.
You should never assign absolute certainty to any belief, as doing so makes it impossible to change your mind when faced with contradictory evidence.
Explicitly acknowledging your initial assumptions allows you to systematically adjust your confidence levels as new data emerges.