Tom Chivers
Your brain naturally predicts the future by constantly updating its beliefs with new evidence. Seeing that process through Bayes' theorem can sharpen how you make decisions and interpret uncertainty.
In this Bayesian framing, probability is not just about frequencies but a measure of your uncertainty regarding specific hypotheses.
You should never assign absolute certainty to any belief, as doing so makes it impossible to change your mind when faced with contradictory evidence.
Making your prior assumptions explicit allows you to systematically adjust your confidence levels as new data emerges, rather than hiding those judgments behind fixed statistical rules.