
Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner
Human behavior is fundamentally driven by economic, social, and moral incentives. When a day care center introduced a small financial penalty for parents who picked up their children late, the number of late pickups actually doubled. The financial penalty removed the moral guilt of arriving late and replaced it with a cheap economic transaction. Once the fine was removed, parents continued to arrive late without feeling guilty because the initial moral incentive had been permanently erased.
High stakes inevitably invite cheating. Chicago public school teachers systematically altered student test answers to secure their jobs and earn performance bonuses. Sumo wrestlers in Japan threw matches to help opponents who desperately needed a win to maintain their elite ranking. Even in an honor system business selling bagels to office workers, theft increased significantly during stressful holidays or unseasonably cold weather.
Experts frequently use their superior knowledge to serve their own financial interests at the expense of their clients. Real estate agents keep their own homes on the market longer and sell them for a higher premium than the homes they sell for clients. Because an agent only receives a tiny fraction of any incremental increase in the sale price, the agent has a strong incentive to convince a client to accept the first decent offer. Agents use ambiguous language like charming or well maintained to signal low value to buyers, while reserving concrete descriptions like granite or state of the art for their own properties.
Hoarded information loses its power once exposed to the public. The Ku Klux Klan thrived on secret rituals and hidden passwords that created an aura of fear. When an activist infiltrated the organization and broadcasted its secrets on a popular children's radio show, the group was mocked and its membership plummeted. The internet achieves a similar effect by stripping experts of their informational advantage, driving down the cost of term life insurance by allowing consumers to easily compare prices.
The illicit drug trade operates with a hierarchical structure that closely mirrors standard corporate capitalism. A local crack cocaine gang leader earns a lucrative salary by paying a portion of his revenues to a central board of directors while keeping the rest of the profits. Beneath the leadership, foot soldiers perform the dangerous street level work of selling drugs and facing rival gangs. These street dealers earn less than minimum wage and often live with their mothers to survive.
Street level dealers accept low pay and high mortality risks because they are participating in an economic tournament. They surrender immediate safety and financial stability for a slim chance to ascend the hierarchy and claim a lucrative leadership position. When the price of crack cocaine plummeted due to market saturation, the massive profits at the top disappeared. Consequently, the violent turf wars over street corners ended because the potential financial reward no longer justified the risk of death.
Violent crime in the United States dropped precipitously in the 1990s due to a combination of increased incarceration, expanded police forces, the collapse of the crack cocaine market, and the legalization of abortion two decades prior. Conventional explanations like a strong economy, innovative policing strategies, and capital punishment had no measurable impact on the crime decline. The death penalty is applied too rarely to serve as a functional deterrent, and the economy only affects nonviolent property crimes.
Legalized abortion radically altered the demographic makeup of the country by preventing the births of children who faced the highest statistical risk of becoming criminals. Women who sought abortions were disproportionately poor, unmarried, or in their teens. Children born into these exact circumstances are overwhelmingly more likely to lead criminal lives. When abortion became legal and accessible, millions of these high risk children were never born, resulting in an unprecedented drop in violent crime exactly one generation later.
Obsessive parenting techniques have virtually no impact on a child's early academic success. Statistical data reveals that reading to a child every day, taking a child to museums, or having a mother stay home from work does not improve early test scores. Furthermore, children who win lotteries to attend better public schools do not perform any better academically than statistically equivalent children who remain in their local neighborhood schools.
Academic success is heavily correlated with what parents are rather than what they do. Children who perform well on tests typically have highly educated parents with high socioeconomic status. The presence of many books in a home correlates strongly with high test scores, but the books themselves do not cause intelligence. A large home library simply indicates that the parents are highly educated and value learning, traits they inevitably pass on to their offspring.
Names serve as powerful indicators of socioeconomic status but have no causal effect on a person's life trajectory. A person with a distinctively low income name often faces poor economic outcomes, not because the name causes failure, but because the name reveals a disadvantaged background. Two boys from identical socioeconomic backgrounds will achieve similar levels of success regardless of whether they have a traditional name or a distinctively ethnic name.
Names migrate through the population in a predictable economic pattern. High income and highly educated parents adopt specific names to signal their expectations for their children. As these names become popular among the wealthy, lower income parents begin adopting the same names to emulate that success. Once a name becomes entirely ubiquitous across the lower classes, high income parents abandon it completely and seek out entirely new names to restart the cycle.