Why the West is Collapsing: The End of the Rules-Based Order

The "rules-based order" established after 1945 and reinforced after 1991 was a shared fiction maintained by American hegemony. Kisin argues that international law is only as real as the force backing it. With the West losing focus and the US withdrawing from its role as global policeman, this structure is disintegrating. We are witnessing a return to historical norms where powerful nations (like the US, China, and Russia) act purely in their own interests, disregarding treaties or borders when it suits them, as seen in Ukraine and threats toward Taiwan.

Since the end of the Cold War, the West believed it had "won" history and could afford to be lazy. Kisin provides striking statistics to illustrate this imbalance: Europe represents 12% of the global population and 25% of global GDP, but consumes 60% of the world's welfare spending. This disproportionate spending on comfort rather than defense or innovation has left the continent vulnerable. Germany’s decision to destroy its nuclear energy sector and rely on Russian gas is cited as a prime example of "luxury beliefs" colliding with harsh reality.

Britain has engineered its own decline through policy choices that prioritize ideology over economics. The UK currently has the highest tax burden in peacetime history, yet public services are failing. Kisin points out that high energy costs, driven by Net Zero policies, have destroyed manufacturing and made it impossible to produce virgin steel—a critical component for defense. Furthermore, the cultural vilification of success drives entrepreneurs away. Kisin notes that the top 1% of earners pay 30% of all income tax, yet they are treated as enemies, prompting them to leave the country and taking their tax revenue with them.

Politicians use mass immigration to hide the reality of economic stagnation. Kisin explains this using a household analogy: if a family of four earns £100,000, and then two in-laws move in earning £10,000 each, the household income rises to £120,000 (GDP growth), but the income per person drops significantly (GDP per capita decline). This strategy allows governments to claim the economy is growing while citizens feel increasingly poor. He argues that high levels of migration also erode social cohesion, which is essential for a nation to function during crises.

The rapid advancement of AI and robotics creates a future where human labor may become obsolete. Kisin references Elon Musk’s "Optimus" robot and the likelihood of autonomous agents replacing vast swathes of the workforce. In a world where robots create all value, a capitalist structure where only a few owners profit is unsustainable. Kisin suggests that even staunch anti-communists may eventually support wealth redistribution, as the alternative is a society where the majority have no means of survival.

We are transitioning from a unipolar world (US dominance) to a multipolar one (US, China, Russia, rising India). Multipolar worlds are historically unstable, violent, and defined by friction. Kisin argues that this shift is disastrous for Europe, which has neither the military might nor the economic dynamism to sit at the "big table." The only path forward for the UK is to abandon its delusions of grandeur, repair its economy, and firmly align itself as a useful junior partner to the United States.

Citing Thomas Sowell, Kisin argues that the West's fundamental error over the last few decades has been replacing "what works" with "what feels good." Whether it is energy policy, welfare, or defense, decisions are made based on emotional validation and ideological purity rather than practical outcomes. The result is a society that feels morally superior but is practically failing. Kisin concludes that a painful correction is inevitable; people will only abandon these "luxury beliefs" when their quality of life degrades enough to force a return to reality.