Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
In a global prediction tournament, some volunteer forecasters beat the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information.
Triage questions to focus analytical effort on the Goldilocks zone of difficulty between simple rule-based problems and unpredictable random events.
Break complex head-scratchers into knowable and unknowable sub-problems using Fermi decomposition to expose hidden assumptions.
Establish a baseline by seeking out comparison classes for an outside view before adjusting for the specific details of an inside view.