Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Can ordinary people predict the future better than intelligence experts? By shifting how you process information, you can dramatically improve your ability to forecast complex events and make smarter decisions.
Break complex questions into smaller, manageable, and estimable sub-problems to expose hidden assumptions.
Anchor your initial estimates using historical base rates before adjusting for the specific details of the current situation.
Express your predictions using fine-grained percentages instead of vague language to encourage deeper analytical engagement.