Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Can ordinary people forecast world events better than intelligence experts? By changing how you process information, you can improve your ability to predict complex events and make better judgments.
Break complex questions into smaller, manageable, and estimable sub-problems to expose hidden assumptions.
Anchor your initial estimates using historical base rates before adjusting for the specific details of the current situation.
Express your predictions using fine-grained percentages instead of vague language to encourage deeper analytical engagement.